Updated forecast: Scattered strong storms peppering the D.C. region this evening (2024)

8:10 p.m. — Severe storm threat shifting out of the area

The strongest storms in the region have moved into southern Maryland. Warnings continue for parts of Calvert, Prince George’s, Charles and St. Mary’s counties until 9:00 p.m.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Waldorf MD, Golden Beach MD and Huntingtown MD until 9:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/CAXZI7yg4I

— NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm) July 1, 2024

With the cold front moving through the area the next couple hours, remaining storms will increasingly be pushed farther south and east of Interstate 95. There is a small chance of additional pop ups locally over the next hour or two.

Unless something major develops, and that shouldn’t be expected, this will be our last update. Look for PM Update in the next half hour, covering the forecast into the start of the workweek.

6:35 p.m. — New severe-warned storm northeast Beltway area

A bunch of outflow boundaries — cooler air rushing out from old storms — are colliding in the immediate area. This has helped a couple small storms to quickly fire up. One over Landover was just warned until 7:00 p.m., for the potential of gusts to 60 mph and quarter size hail. Lightning is so far minimal with this one.

The storm is passing Glenarden, Mitchellville, Largo and will head toward Bowie, Kettering and Hall shortly.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Bowie MD, Landover MD and Hyattsville MD until 7:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/nIPeB9QLmt

— NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm) June 30, 2024

5:30 p.m. — Severe storm warning for northeastern Montgomery and Howard counties

After weakening below severe levels for much of the last hour, the storm passing between D.C. and Baltimore is back to being warned. The warning runs until 6:00 p.m. and includes BWI, Glen Burnie, Columbia, Severna Park and Annapolis as the storm drops east-southeast. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are the primary severe threat with this storm.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Glen Burnie MD, Baltimore Washington Airport MD and Severn MD until 6:00 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/d04ypFr8Kn

— NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) June 30, 2024

Another weaker storm is located near Centreville to Merrifield. It is also moving east-southeast.

Really coming down here in Fairfax, good to see some rain. #vawx @capitalweather pic.twitter.com/g3gLb0kwGJ

— Jose Garcia (@wx_garcia) June 30, 2024

4:30 p.m. — Severe storm warning for northeastern Montgomery and Howard counties

While there’s not much activity out there, the couple storms so far are rather intense. A warning was issued until 5:15 p.m. for a storm near Damascus that is headed east and southeast.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Columbia MD, Ellicott City MD and Scaggsville MD until 5:15 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/RiV7cVIEZn

— NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) June 30, 2024

A tree was reported down in Urbana recently.

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Other storms are attempting to develop into the immediate area.

From 3:30 p.m...

An extremely moist atmosphere, temperatures climbing into the low to mid-90s, and an approaching cold front are combining for a severe storm threat in the D.C. region today during the late afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 11 p.m..

In part because the atmosphere is so moist today, with dew points in the tropical-like mid-70s, many locations have a decent chance of seeing at least one heavy storm. However, some spots could get missed, especially those farther north and west of the Beltway.

It’s less certain how many storms will produce damaging wind gusts or large hail, because that depends on whether sunshine emerged early enough in the afternoon to fuel the atmosphere. Locations that get at least one storm could pick up around 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, which would be helpful since rainfall is running more than 3 inches below average since June 1. Other places may see much less rain today.

Fast Facts

  • Timing: Off-and-on scattered storms from about 10 p.m.
  • Duration: Any individual storm could last up to 45 minutes or so.
  • Possible impacts: Heavy rain, lightning, damaging winds, large hail, isolated flooding, small chance of tornado.
  • Confidence: Many locations have a decent chance of seeing at least one heavy storm, but some spots could get missed, especially the farther north and west you are of the Beltway. It’s less certain how many storms will produce damaging wind gusts or large hail, but several could.

Analysis

“The high-resolution forecast models early this afternoon portray a line of storms firing across Montgomery County, the District and Northern Virginia in the late afternoon and sliding east. A second line may develop across the same general region during the evening.,” said Capital Weather Gang’s severe weather expert, Jeff Halverson. “These lines are being triggered by an advancing cold front plowing into a very moist and unstable air mass, which could lead to isolated strong to severe wind gusts, a flash flood threat and potentially more than one round of storms in some places.”

Updated forecast: Scattered strong storms peppering the D.C. region this evening (2024)
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